Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 28.430839 31.624689 35.290876 39.875083 45.550154 52.483553 61.828847
2025-03-16 23.739527 27.719464 32.704301 39.628729 49.409180 63.498656 87.158368
2025-03-23 20.712525 24.995144 30.697584 39.271162 52.765415 75.389484 123.654854
2025-03-30 18.618092 23.020619 29.160377 38.992652 55.971871 88.861400 181.130188
2025-04-06 16.841086 21.174608 27.417281 37.885134 57.305676 99.834439 258.315722
2025-04-13 16.170912 20.767469 27.671767 39.986091 65.291761 132.674314 600.398960
2025-04-20 15.110482 19.646336 26.629925 39.565857 67.976831 155.280565 1430.614883
2025-04-27 14.355114 18.894454 26.059419 39.861171 72.444958 191.599345 26594.257435
2025-05-04 13.733543 18.280070 25.623388 40.305121 77.564096 243.724678 NaN
2025-05-11 13.140771 17.652971 25.081462 40.411774 81.911636 308.998813 NaN
2025-05-18 12.506769 16.907203 24.247519 39.736246 83.686092 368.909563 NaN
2025-05-25 12.048510 16.410823 23.803865 39.835552 88.141361 491.909410 NaN
2025-06-01 11.562917 15.842560 23.186775 39.465394 91.035505 646.371497 NaN
2025-06-08 11.095555 15.275535 22.522715 38.881957 92.990154 850.495263 NaN
2025-06-15 10.682072 14.774009 21.938777 38.401400 95.255607 1196.563564 NaN
2025-06-22 10.321945 14.341624 21.449845 38.079875 98.176239 1922.054356 NaN
2025-06-29 9.907911 13.795432 20.701394 36.994545 97.160392 2509.350731 NaN
2025-07-06 9.846226 13.849712 21.120973 39.003084 112.859989 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 9.549577 13.477984 20.666064 38.596365 115.707501 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 9.337557 13.243931 20.469867 38.878193 123.124646 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.151545 13.045918 20.330890 39.303322 132.259341 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 8.949423 12.808963 20.093482 39.405333 139.630809 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 8.698435 12.473241 19.627956 38.757460 140.889472 NaN NaN